Leading geoscientists from across India have warned of a potential major earthquake in Uttarakhand due to growing tectonic pressure in the Himalayan region. Recent seismic activity and accumulating underground energy suggest that a high-magnitude quake — possibly around 7.0 — could strike, especially as no major earthquake has occurred in the region since the 1991 Uttarkashi (7.0) and 1999 Chamoli (6.8) quakes.
The warning came during two key scientific discussions held in Dehradun: one at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology titled “Understanding Himalayan Earthquakes”, and another at the Forest Research Institute (FRI) focusing on “Earthquake Risk Assessment”. Experts pointed out that smaller quakes are not sufficient to release the built-up energy, and the current seismic pattern mirrors conditions seen before past major quakes.
According to the National Centre for Seismology, Uttarakhand experienced 22 earthquakes (magnitude 1.8 to 3.6) in the last six months, with Chamoli, Pithoragarh, Uttarkashi, and Bageshwar being most affected. The state falls in seismic zones IV and V, making it one of India’s most earthquake-prone regions.
Key Scientific Observations:
- Plate Locking: The Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates are moving slowly in Uttarakhand, causing a “locked” zone that builds stress.
- Risk Areas: A new GPS-based study is underway to identify where the highest stress is accumulating.
- Low-Depth Threat: Quakes occurring at shallow depths (~10 km) are 3 times more destructive than deeper quakes.
- Worse Impact in Plains: Scientists said that while both hills and plains are at risk, plains like Dehradun would suffer more damage from a quake of the same magnitude due to soil structure and population density.
The CSIR Bengaluru will conduct an advanced geological stability survey in Dehradun to assess the city’s structural resilience. Previous microzonation by Wadia Institute and the Geological Survey of India had already identified parts of the city as vulnerable.
Early Warning System:
To enhance preparedness, 169 earthquake sensors have been installed across Uttarakhand. These sensors can alert people 15 to 30 seconds before a quake of magnitude 5 or above via the BhuDev mobile app, helping them take quick protective action.
