India’s birth rate has declined to an average of 1.9 children per woman—falling below the replacement level of 2.1—for the first time in history, according to a new demographic report by the United Nations. The report highlights a major demographic shift, even as India’s population is projected to become the world’s largest, reaching 1.46 billion by the end of 2025.
Despite the low fertility rate, India continues to have a significant youth population: 24% in the 0–14 age group, 17% in 10–19, and 26% in 10–24. Currently, 68% of the population is in the working-age group (15–64), presenting a potential demographic dividend if supported by adequate employment opportunities and policy measures.
However, the report also warns that the declining fertility rate could become a long-term challenge. With fewer children being born, India could face a shrinking young population in the coming decades. This decline could eventually lead to an ageing society and reduced workforce strength, with population size starting to decline after peaking at around 1.7 billion over the next 40 years.
The report attributes the falling fertility rate to several factors, primarily financial constraints. About 38% of respondents cited financial burdens as the main reason for not expanding their families. Job insecurity (21%), lack of adequate housing (22%), and absence of reliable childcare (18%) were also significant deterrents. Health-related concerns such as poor general health (15%), infertility (13%), and limited access to maternal care (14%) were other key contributors.
The current life expectancy is projected to improve, with estimates reaching 71 years for men and 74 years for women by 2025. While India’s ageing population (65+) is currently 7%, it is expected to grow steadily in the coming decades due to better healthcare and rising life expectancy.
The UN’s findings indicate that while India’s population continues to grow in the short term, its demographic composition is changing rapidly, calling for urgent socio-economic planning to sustain future development.
